510 Mathematik
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This cumulative dissertation is organized as follows:
After the introduction, the second chapter, based on “Asymptotic independence of bivariate order statistics” (2017) by Falk and Wisheckel, is an investigation of the asymptotic dependence behavior of the components of bivariate order statistics. We find that the two components of the order statistics become asymptotically independent for certain combinations of (sequences of) indices that are selected, and it turns out that no further assumptions on the dependence of the two components in the underlying sample are necessary. To establish this, an explicit representation of the conditional distribution of bivariate order statistics is derived.
Chapter 3 is from “Conditional tail independence in archimedean copula models” (2019) by Falk, Padoan and Wisheckel and deals with the conditional distribution of an Archimedean copula, conditioned on one of its components. We show that its tails are independent under minor conditions on the generator function, even if the unconditional tails were dependent. The theoretical findings are underlined by a simulation study and can be generalized to Archimax copulas.
“Generalized pareto copulas: A key to multivariate extremes” (2019) by Falk, Padoan and Wisheckel lead to Chapter 4 where we introduce a nonparametric approach to estimate the probability that a random vector exceeds a fixed threshold if it follows a Generalized Pareto copula. To this end, some theory underlying the concept of Generalized Pareto distributions is presented first, the estimation procedure is tested using a simulation and finally applied to a dataset of air pollution parameters in Milan, Italy, from 2002 until 2017.
The fifth chapter collects some additional results on derivatives of D-norms, in particular a condition for the existence of directional derivatives, and multivariate spacings, specifically an explicit formula for the second-to-last bivariate spacing.
Extreme value theory is concerned with the stochastic modeling of rare and extreme events. While fundamental theories of classical stochastics - such as the laws of small numbers or the central limit theorem - are used to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the sum of random variables, extreme value theory focuses on the maximum or minimum of a set of observations. The limit distribution of the normalized sample maximum among a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables can be characterized by means of so-called max-stable distributions.
This dissertation concerns with different aspects of the theory of max-stable random vectors and stochastic processes. In particular, the concept of 'differentiability in distribution' of a max-stable process is introduced and investigated. Moreover, 'generalized max-linear models' are introduced in order to interpolate a known max-stable random vector by a max-stable process. Further, the connection between extreme value theory and multivariate records is established. In particular, so-called 'complete' and 'simple' records are introduced as well as it is examined their asymptotic behavior.
We introduce some mathematical framework for extreme value theory in the space of continuous functions on compact intervals and provide basic definitions and tools. Continuous max-stable processes on [0,1] are characterized by their “distribution functions” G which can be represented via a norm on function space, called D-norm. The high conformity of this setup with the multivariate case leads to the introduction of a functional domain of attraction approach for stochastic processes, which is more general than the usual one based on weak convergence. We also introduce the concept of “sojourn time transformation” and compare several types of convergence on function space. Again in complete accordance with the uni- or multivariate case it is now possible to get functional generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) W via W = 1 + log(G) in the upper tail. In particular, this enables us to derive characterizations of the functional domain of attraction condition for copula processes. Moreover, we investigate the sojourn time above a high threshold of a continuous stochastic process. It turns out that the limit, as the threshold increases, of the expected sojourn time given that it is positive, exists if the copula process corresponding to Y is in the functional domain of attraction of a max-stable process. If the process is in a certain neighborhood of a generalized Pareto process, then we can replace the constant threshold by a general threshold function and we can compute the asymptotic sojourn time distribution.
On the Fragility Index
(2011)
The Fragility Index captures the amount of risk in a stochastic system of arbitrary dimension. Its main mathematical tool is the asymptotic distribution of exceedance counts within the system which can be derived by use of multivariate extreme value theory. Thereby the basic assumption is that data comes from a distribution which lies in the domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution. The Fragility Index itself and its extension can serve as a quantitative measure for tail dependence in arbitrary dimensions. It is linked to the well known extremal index for stochastic processes as well the extremal coefficient of an extreme value distribution.
In Janssen and Reiss (1988) it was shown that in a location model of a Weibull type sample with shape parameter -1 < a < 1 the k(n) lower extremes are asymptotically local sufficient. In the present paper we show that even global sufficiency holds. Moreover, it turns out that convergence of the given statistical experiments in the deficiency metric does not only hold for compact parameter sets but for the whole real line.